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Premier League · Matchday 17Saturday 26 December · 15:00 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
EVE 47%X 28%SUN 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Everton lead by 64 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Everton 1.0 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • If Everton score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.541%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Everton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X28%3.55225%4.06
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.891272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.541%2.42Under 2.559%1.70BTTS yes47%2.15BTTS no53%1.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Everton – Sunderland17 May 20261-3
Sunderland – Everton3 November 20251-1