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Premier League · Matchday 17Sunday 27 December · 19:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Arsenal1st place
CRY 12%X 20%ARS 67%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 278 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 39% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
112%8.02X20%4.99267%1.48
Double chance
1X33%3.08X288%1.141280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Arsenal0-2 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Arsenal24 May 20261-2
Arsenal – Crystal Palace26 October 20251-0
Arsenal – Crystal Palace23 April 20252-2
Crystal Palace – Arsenal21 December 20241-5
Arsenal – Crystal Palace20 January 20245-0
Crystal Palace – Arsenal21 August 20230-1