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Premier League · Matchday 18Wednesday 30 December · 20:15 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Liverpool5th place
AVL 34%X 28%LIV 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.95X28%3.63239%2.59
Double chance
1X61%1.63X266%1.511272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Liverpool15 May 20264-2
Liverpool – Aston Villa1 November 20252-0
Aston Villa – Liverpool19 February 20252-2
Liverpool – Aston Villa9 November 20242-0
Aston Villa – Liverpool13 May 20243-3
Liverpool – Aston Villa3 September 20233-0