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Premier League · Matchday 18Wednesday 30 December · 19:30 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Sunderland20th place
MUN 57%X 25%SUN 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester United lead by 94 rating points.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X25%4.07218%5.44
Double chance
1X82%1.23X243%2.331275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Manchester United9 May 20260-0
Manchester United – Sunderland4 October 20252-0