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Premier League · Matchday 18Tuesday 29 December · 20:15 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
EVE 21%X 25%MCI 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 182 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Everton -0.1.
  • If Everton score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.77X25%3.98254%1.86
Double chance
1X46%2.17X279%1.271275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Everton – Manchester City4 May 20263-3
Manchester City – Everton18 October 20252-0
Everton – Manchester City19 April 20250-2
Manchester City – Everton26 December 20241-1
Manchester City – Everton10 February 20242-0
Everton – Manchester City27 December 20231-3