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Premier League · Matchday 18Wednesday 30 December · 19:30 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Bournemouth7th place
CRY 22%X 25%BOU 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Bournemouth 1.8 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Over 2.553%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.53X25%3.95253%1.90
Double chance
1X47%2.11X278%1.281275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bournemouth – Crystal Palace3 May 20263-0
Crystal Palace – Bournemouth18 October 20253-3
Crystal Palace – Bournemouth19 April 20250-0
Bournemouth – Crystal Palace26 December 20240-0
Bournemouth – Crystal Palace2 April 20241-0
Crystal Palace – Bournemouth6 December 20230-2