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Premier League · Matchday 18Wednesday 30 December · 19:30 · St James Park
Newcastle United13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Nottingham Forest19th place
NEW 36%X 28%NFO 35%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Newcastle United 1.2 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.75X28%3.53235%2.83
Double chance
1X65%1.55X264%1.571272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Nottingham Forest1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 May 20261-1
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest5 October 20252-0
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest23 February 20254-3
Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 November 20241-3
Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 February 20242-3
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest26 December 20231-3