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Premier League · Matchday 8Saturday 24 October · 12:30 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Manchester City2nd place
AVL 21%X 24%MCI 55%

What does the market say?

Aston VillaDrawManchester CityRinvalo21%24%55%
Market20%22%58%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 176 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 3.0 points per game, Aston Villa 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Aston Villa -0.5.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.81X24%4.15255%1.81
Double chance
1X45%2.23X279%1.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Manchester City2-1 probability 5.7% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Manchester City24 October 20262-1
Manchester City – Aston Villa24 May 20261-2
Aston Villa – Manchester City26 October 20251-0
Manchester City – Aston Villa22 April 20252-1
Aston Villa – Manchester City21 December 20242-1
Manchester City – Aston Villa3 April 20244-1