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Premier League · Matchday 8Saturday 24 October · 17:30 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Tottenham8th place
CHE 50%X 27%TOT 24%

What does the market say?

ChelseaDrawTottenhamRinvalo50%27%24%
Market56%23%22%

✓ Agree · both back Chelsea

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Chelsea lead by 91 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.4 points per game, Tottenham 0.4.
  • Derby match.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Tottenham score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X27%3.75224%4.25
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%1.991273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Tottenham0-2 probability 3.6% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Tottenham24 October 20260-2
Chelsea – Tottenham19 May 20262-1
Tottenham – Chelsea1 November 20250-1
Chelsea – Tottenham3 April 20251-0
Tottenham – Chelsea8 December 20243-4
Chelsea – Tottenham2 May 20242-0