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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
AVL 53%X 26%SUN 21%

What does the market say?

Aston VillaDrawSunderlandRinvalo53%26%21%
Market49%27%24%

✓ Agree · both back Aston Villa

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • Aston Villa lead by 114 rating points.
  • The market also backs the home side (49%).
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X26%3.83221%4.71
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.111274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Market 53%Under 2.551%1.95Market 47%BTTS yes51%1.96Market 55%BTTS no49%2.04Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Sunderland19 April 20264-3
Sunderland – Aston Villa21 September 20251-1