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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Leeds United12th place
CHE 47%X 28%LEE 26%

What does the market say?

ChelseaDrawLeeds UnitedRinvalo47%28%26%
Market53%25%22%

✓ Agree · both back Chelsea

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • The market also backs the home side (53%).
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.15X28%3.62226%3.88
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.871272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Market 55%Under 2.549%2.02Market 45%BTTS yes54%1.84Market 55%BTTS no46%2.19Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Leeds United1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Leeds United10 February 20262-2
Leeds United – Chelsea3 December 20253-1
Chelsea – Leeds United4 March 20231-0
Leeds United – Chelsea21 August 20223-0
Leeds United – Chelsea11 May 20220-3
Chelsea – Leeds United11 December 20213-2