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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 17:30 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Arsenal1st place
NEW 17%X 23%ARS 60%

What does the market say?

Newcastle UnitedDrawArsenalRinvalo17%23%60%
Market18%23%59%

✓ Agree · both back Arsenal

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 202 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Newcastle United 1.2.
  • The market also backs the away side (59%).
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.91X23%4.30260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.49X283%1.201277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Market 57%Under 2.549%2.06Market 43%BTTS yes50%2.00Market 53%BTTS no50%2.00Market 47%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Newcastle United25 April 20261-0
Newcastle United – Arsenal28 September 20251-2
Arsenal – Newcastle United18 May 20251-0
Newcastle United – Arsenal2 November 20241-0
Arsenal – Newcastle United24 February 20244-1
Newcastle United – Arsenal4 November 20231-0