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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 12:30 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Fulham15th place
MCI 66%X 21%FUL 13%

What does the market say?

Manchester CityDrawFulhamRinvalo66%21%13%
Market65%20%15%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 195 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (65%).
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Fulham score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.554%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.52X21%4.66213%7.94
Double chance
1X87%1.14X234%2.941279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Market 64%Under 2.546%2.17Market 36%BTTS yes48%2.07Market 56%BTTS no52%1.93Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Fulham2-0 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Fulham11 February 20263-0
Fulham – Manchester City2 December 20254-5
Fulham – Manchester City25 May 20250-2
Manchester City – Fulham5 October 20243-2
Fulham – Manchester City11 May 20240-4
Manchester City – Fulham2 September 20235-1