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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nottingham Forest19th place
BOU 51%X 27%NFO 22%

What does the market say?

BournemouthDrawNottingham ForestRinvalo51%27%22%
Market51%26%23%

✓ Agree · both back Bournemouth

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 100 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Bournemouth 1.8 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • The market also backs the home side (51%).
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X27%3.74222%4.55
Double chance
1X78%1.28X249%2.051273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.07Market 53%Under 2.552%1.94Market 47%BTTS yes51%1.96Market 53%BTTS no49%2.05Market 47%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Nottingham Forest1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nottingham Forest – Bournemouth24 May 20261-1
Bournemouth – Nottingham Forest26 October 20252-0
Bournemouth – Nottingham Forest25 January 20255-0
Nottingham Forest – Bournemouth17 August 20241-1
Bournemouth – Nottingham Forest4 February 20241-1
Nottingham Forest – Bournemouth23 December 20232-3