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Premier League · Matchday 11Sunday 22 November · 16:30 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Manchester United17th place
LIV 48%X 27%MUN 25%

What does the market say?

LiverpoolDrawManchester UnitedRinvalo48%27%25%
Market53%25%22%

✓ Agree · both back Liverpool

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • Liverpool lead by 62 rating points.
  • Derby match.
  • The market also backs the home side (53%).
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X27%3.77225%3.92
Double chance
1X75%1.34X252%1.921273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Market 55%Under 2.544%2.28Market 45%BTTS yes58%1.71Market 56%BTTS no42%2.41Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Liverpool3 May 20263-2
Liverpool – Manchester United19 October 20251-2
Liverpool – Manchester United5 January 20252-2
Manchester United – Liverpool1 September 20240-3
Manchester United – Liverpool7 April 20242-2
Liverpool – Manchester United17 December 20230-0