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Premier League · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Ipswich Town13th place
TOT 62%X 23%IPS 16%

What does the market say?

TottenhamDrawIpswich TownRinvalo62%23%16%
Market60%23%17%

✓ Agree · both back Tottenham

Prediction

Key factors
  • Tottenham lead by 104 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Tottenham 2.0 points per game, Ipswich Town 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Tottenham 0.2, Ipswich Town -0.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (60%).
  • If Tottenham score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Ipswich Town score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.562%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X23%4.42216%6.37
Double chance
1X84%1.19X238%2.611277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Market 59%Under 2.538%2.65Market 41%BTTS yes58%1.72Market 55%BTTS no42%2.38Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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5
Rows: Tottenham · Columns: Ipswich Town2-1 probability 9.9%

Form

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Head to head

Ipswich Town – Tottenham22 February 20251-4
Tottenham – Ipswich Town10 November 20241-2