TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 8Sunday 25 October · 14:00 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Full time4-4Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Frosinone6th place
ATA 56%X 25%FRO 19%

What does the market say?

AtalantaDrawFrosinoneRinvalo56%25%19%
Market52%23%25%

✓ Agree · both back Atalanta

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 73 rating points.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X25%4.02219%5.26
Double chance
1X81%1.23X244%2.281275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Frosinone4-4 probability 0.1% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atalanta – Frosinone25 October 20264-4
Atalanta – Frosinone15 January 20245-0
Frosinone – Atalanta26 August 20232-1