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Serie A · Matchday 8Sunday 25 October · 14:00 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Exact score
Venezia20th place
GEN 57%X 25%VEN 18%

What does the market say?

GenoaDrawVeneziaRinvalo57%25%18%
Market45%28%27%

✓ Agree · both back Genoa

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Genoa lead by 89 rating points.
  • If Genoa score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Venezia score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.547%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X25%4.02218%5.56
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.331275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Venezia1-0 probability 12.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
VeneziaLWLLL

Head to head

Genoa – Venezia25 October 20261-0
Genoa – Venezia17 February 20252-0
Venezia – Genoa21 September 20242-0
Venezia – Genoa20 February 20221-1
Genoa – Venezia31 October 20210-0