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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 8Saturday 24 October · 19:45 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Parma18th place
LAZ 60%X 25%PAR 15%

What does the market say?

LazioDrawParmaRinvalo60%25%15%
Market68%21%12%

✓ Agree · both back Lazio

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 131 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 2.6 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.1, Parma -0.8.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.6
Over 2.538%
Both teams score38%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X25%3.94215%6.64
Double chance
1X85%1.18X240%2.471275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.538%2.62Under 2.562%1.62BTTS yes38%2.60BTTS no62%1.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Parma2-1 probability 8.7% · final score

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Lazio – Parma24 October 20262-1
Lazio – Parma4 April 20261-1
Parma – Lazio13 December 20250-1
Lazio – Parma28 April 20252-2
Parma – Lazio1 December 20243-1