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Serie A · Matchday 15Sunday 13 December · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Genoa11th place
ATA 50%X 27%GEN 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 76 rating points.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.547%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.00X27%3.67223%4.37
Double chance
1X77%1.30X250%2.001273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Genoa1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Atalanta – Genoa2 May 20260-0
Genoa – Atalanta21 December 20250-1
Genoa – Atalanta17 May 20252-3
Atalanta – Genoa5 October 20245-1
Genoa – Atalanta11 February 20241-4
Atalanta – Genoa22 October 20232-0