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Serie A · Matchday 15Sunday 13 December · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Roma3rd place
LAZ 34%X 27%ROM 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 61 rating points.
  • Roma take 2.0 points per game away.
  • Derby match.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.4
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.92X27%3.67238%2.60
Double chance
1X62%1.63X266%1.521273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Lazio17 May 20262-0
Lazio – Roma21 September 20250-1
Lazio – Roma13 April 20251-1
Roma – Lazio5 January 20252-0
Roma – Lazio6 April 20241-0
Lazio – Roma12 November 20230-0