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Serie A · Matchday 15Sunday 13 December · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Milan5th place
NAP 45%X 28%MIL 27%

Prediction

  • If Napoli score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X28%3.59227%3.64
Double chance
1X73%1.38X255%1.811272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Napoli – Milan6 April 20261-0
Milan – Napoli28 September 20252-1
Napoli – Milan30 March 20252-1
Milan – Napoli29 October 20240-2
Milan – Napoli11 February 20241-0
Napoli – Milan29 October 20232-2