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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 12Sunday 22 November · 19:45 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Inter2nd place
ATA 16%X 21%INT 63%

What does the market say?

AtalantaDrawInterRinvalo16%21%63%
Market21%22%57%

✓ Agree · both back Inter

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter lead by 173 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Atalanta -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Inter 2.4 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • The market also backs the away side (57%).
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 41% of the time
  • If Inter score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.2
Over 2.564%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.15X21%4.74263%1.60
Double chance
1X37%2.68X284%1.191279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Market 68%Under 2.536%2.76Market 32%BTTS yes59%1.69Market 65%BTTS no41%2.44Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Inter1-2 probability 9.8%

Form

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InterWWWWL

Head to head

Inter – Atalanta14 March 20261-1
Atalanta – Inter28 December 20250-1
Atalanta – Inter16 March 20250-2
Inter – Atalanta30 August 20244-0
Inter – Atalanta28 February 20244-0
Atalanta – Inter4 November 20231-2