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Serie A · Matchday 12Monday 23 November · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Fiorentina17th place
MON 35%X 27%FIO 38%

What does the market say?

MonzaDrawFiorentinaRinvalo35%27%38%
Market25%25%50%

✓ Agree · both back Fiorentina

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fiorentina lead by 97 rating points.
  • The market also backs the away side (50%).
  • If Monza score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.560%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Fiorentina win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.82X27%3.76238%2.64
Double chance
1X62%1.61X265%1.551273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Market 59%Under 2.540%2.53Market 41%BTTS yes63%1.58Market 59%BTTS no37%2.72Market 41%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Fiorentina13 January 20252-1
Fiorentina – Monza1 September 20242-2
Fiorentina – Monza13 May 20242-1
Monza – Fiorentina22 December 20230-1
Monza – Fiorentina23 April 20233-2
Fiorentina – Monza4 January 20231-1