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Serie A · Matchday 12Sunday 22 November · 11:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Genoa11th place
SAS 40%X 29%GEN 32%

What does the market say?

SassuoloDrawGenoaRinvalo40%29%32%
Market38%28%34%

✓ Agree · both back Sassuolo

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (38%).
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Sassuolo win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.52X29%3.50232%3.15
Double chance
1X68%1.47X260%1.661271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Market 53%Under 2.552%1.92Market 47%BTTS yes53%1.88Market 56%BTTS no47%2.14Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Genoa1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Genoa – Sassuolo12 April 20262-1
Sassuolo – Genoa3 November 20251-2
Genoa – Sassuolo12 May 20242-1
Sassuolo – Genoa22 December 20231-2
Sassuolo – Genoa6 January 20221-1
Genoa – Sassuolo17 October 20212-2