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Serie A · Matchday 12Saturday 21 November · 14:00 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Cagliari12th place
COM 69%X 20%CAG 10%

What does the market say?

ComoDrawCagliariRinvalo69%20%10%
Market74%17%9%

✓ Agree · both back Como

Prediction

Key factors
  • Como lead by 224 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Como 2.6 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Como 0.6, Cagliari -0.6.
  • The market also backs the home side (74%).
  • If Como score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.44X20%4.98210%9.55
Double chance
1X90%1.12X231%3.271280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Market 64%Under 2.551%1.96Market 36%BTTS yes41%2.44Market 48%BTTS no59%1.69Market 52%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Como · Columns: Cagliari2-0 probability 14.4%

Form

Compare →
ComoDWWWW

Head to head

Cagliari – Como7 March 20261-2
Como – Cagliari8 November 20250-0
Como – Cagliari10 May 20253-1
Cagliari – Como26 August 20241-1