TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 12Saturday 21 November · 17:00 · Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Roma3rd place
PAR 13%X 20%ROM 67%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 291 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Parma -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • If Parma score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
113%7.87X20%5.01267%1.48
Double chance
1X33%3.06X287%1.151280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes44%2.30BTTS no56%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Parma · Columns: Roma0-2 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Parma – Roma10 May 20262-3
Roma – Parma29 October 20252-1
Parma – Roma16 February 20250-1
Roma – Parma22 December 20245-0