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Serie A · Matchday 12Saturday 21 November · 14:00 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lecce14th place
LAZ 68%X 21%LEC 11%

What does the market say?

LazioDrawLecceRinvalo68%21%11%
Market69%20%12%

✓ Agree · both back Lazio

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 230 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Lecce 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Lecce -0.6.
  • The market also backs the home side (69%).
  • If Lazio score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.6
Over 2.547%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X21%4.79211%9.12
Double chance
1X89%1.12X232%3.141279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Market 60%Under 2.553%1.90Market 40%BTTS yes41%2.46Market 52%BTTS no59%1.69Market 48%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Lecce2-0 probability 14.4%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Lazio24 January 20260-0
Lazio – Lecce23 November 20252-0
Lazio – Lecce25 May 20250-1
Lecce – Lazio21 December 20241-2
Lazio – Lecce14 January 20241-0
Lecce – Lazio20 August 20232-1