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Serie A · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Lecce14th place
ATA 58%X 25%LEC 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 141 rating points.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.550%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.73X25%4.08218%5.69
Double chance
1X82%1.21X242%2.381275%1.32
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Lecce1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Atalanta6 April 20260-3
Atalanta – Lecce14 September 20254-1
Atalanta – Lecce27 April 20251-1
Lecce – Atalanta19 August 20240-4
Lecce – Atalanta18 May 20240-2
Atalanta – Lecce30 December 20231-0