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Serie A · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monza16th place
FIO 51%X 26%MON 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fiorentina lead by 97 rating points.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Fiorentina win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X26%3.85223%4.38
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.051274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.68Under 2.541%2.46BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Monza1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Fiorentina13 January 20252-1
Fiorentina – Monza1 September 20242-2
Fiorentina – Monza13 May 20242-1
Monza – Fiorentina22 December 20230-1
Monza – Fiorentina23 April 20233-2
Fiorentina – Monza4 January 20231-1