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Serie A · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Inter2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Lazio1st place
INT 60%X 23%LAZ 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter lead by 84 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Lazio 0.5.
  • Inter take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Inter score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Inter win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X23%4.30217%5.89
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.491277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Inter · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →
InterWWWWL
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Inter9 May 20260-3
Inter – Lazio9 November 20252-0
Inter – Lazio18 May 20252-2
Lazio – Inter16 December 20240-6
Inter – Lazio19 May 20241-1
Lazio – Inter17 December 20230-2