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Serie A · Matchday 25Sunday 21 February · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Monza16th place
ATA 59%X 23%MON 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 192 rating points.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.567%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X23%4.31218%5.69
Double chance
1X82%1.21X241%2.451277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.567%1.50Under 2.533%2.99BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Monza2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Atalanta4 May 20250-4
Atalanta – Monza30 October 20242-0
Monza – Atalanta21 April 20241-2
Atalanta – Monza2 September 20233-0
Atalanta – Monza4 June 20235-2
Monza – Atalanta5 September 20220-2