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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 25Sunday 21 February · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Napoli8th place
LAZ 39%X 29%NAP 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Napoli 1.4.
  • Lazio take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.55X29%3.49232%3.12
Double chance
1X68%1.47X261%1.651271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Lazio18 April 20260-2
Lazio – Napoli4 January 20260-2
Lazio – Napoli15 February 20252-2
Napoli – Lazio8 December 20240-1
Lazio – Napoli28 January 20240-0
Napoli – Lazio2 September 20231-2