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Serie A · Matchday 25Sunday 21 February · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Genoa11th place
MIL 59%X 25%GEN 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 144 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Genoa -0.4.
  • If Milan score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.547%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.71X25%4.00216%6.06
Double chance
1X84%1.20X241%2.411275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.547%2.15Under 2.553%1.87BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Genoa1-0 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Genoa – Milan17 May 20261-2
Milan – Genoa8 January 20261-1
Genoa – Milan5 May 20251-2
Milan – Genoa15 December 20240-0
Milan – Genoa5 May 20243-3
Genoa – Milan7 October 20230-1