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Serie A · Matchday 16Sunday 20 December · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Napoli8th place
ATA 29%X 27%NAP 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.51X27%3.66244%2.27
Double chance
1X56%1.79X271%1.401273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Atalanta – Napoli22 February 20262-1
Napoli – Atalanta22 November 20253-1
Atalanta – Napoli18 January 20252-3
Napoli – Atalanta3 November 20240-3
Napoli – Atalanta30 March 20240-3
Atalanta – Napoli25 November 20231-2