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Serie A · Matchday 16Sunday 20 December · 17:30 · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Lazio1st place
FRO 25%X 25%LAZ 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 115 rating points.
  • Lazio take 2.4 points per game away.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Frosinone 2.0.
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.563%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.07X25%4.04251%1.97
Double chance
1X49%2.03X275%1.331275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.70BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Frosinone · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Frosinone – Lazio16 March 20242-3
Lazio – Frosinone29 December 20233-1