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Serie A · Matchday 16Sunday 20 December · 17:30 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Udinese19th place
GEN 45%X 28%UDI 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Genoa 2.4 points per game, Udinese 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Genoa -0.4, Udinese -1.1.
  • If Genoa score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Udinese score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.544%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Genoa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X28%3.51226%3.81
Double chance
1X74%1.36X255%1.831272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.30Under 2.556%1.77BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Udinese1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
UdineseLLLDL

Head to head

Genoa – Udinese20 March 20260-2
Udinese – Genoa8 December 20251-2
Genoa – Udinese4 April 20251-0
Udinese – Genoa1 December 20240-2
Genoa – Udinese24 February 20242-0
Udinese – Genoa1 October 20232-2