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Serie A · Matchday 16Sunday 20 December · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Bologna9th place
FIO 31%X 28%BOL 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • Bologna lead by 91 rating points.
  • Bologna take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bologna win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.26X28%3.52241%2.44
Double chance
1X59%1.69X269%1.441272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Bologna1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

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Head to head

Bologna – Fiorentina18 January 20261-2
Fiorentina – Bologna26 October 20252-2
Fiorentina – Bologna18 May 20253-2
Bologna – Fiorentina15 December 20241-0
Bologna – Fiorentina14 February 20242-0
Fiorentina – Bologna12 November 20232-1