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Serie A · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Roma3rd place
ATA 24%X 25%ROM 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 150 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Atalanta -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.8
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.18X25%3.99251%1.96
Double chance
1X49%2.04X276%1.311275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Atalanta5 September 20262-1
Roma – Atalanta18 April 20261-1
Atalanta – Roma3 January 20261-0
Atalanta – Roma12 May 20252-1
Roma – Atalanta2 December 20240-2
Atalanta – Roma12 May 20242-1