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Serie A · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Bologna9th place
LAZ 49%X 28%BOL 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 93 rating points.
  • Lazio take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.04X28%3.63223%4.29
Double chance
1X77%1.30X251%1.971272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Bologna1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Bologna – Lazio24 August 20260-1
Bologna – Lazio22 March 20260-2
Lazio – Bologna7 December 20251-1
Bologna – Lazio16 March 20255-0
Lazio – Bologna24 November 20243-0
Lazio – Bologna18 February 20241-2