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Serie A · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 17:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monza16th place
SAS 48%X 26%MON 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sassuolo lead by 89 rating points.
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.4
Over 2.565%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sassuolo win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X26%3.84226%3.88
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.931274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.85BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Monza1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Sassuolo18 September 20262-1
Monza – Sassuolo28 January 20241-0
Sassuolo – Monza2 October 20230-1
Sassuolo – Monza19 May 20231-2
Monza – Sassuolo22 January 20231-1