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Serie A · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 17:30 · Stadio Via del mare
Lecce14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Udinese19th place
LEC 38%X 28%UDI 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lecce -0.6, Udinese -1.1.
  • If Lecce score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Udinese score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lecce win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.65X28%3.51234%2.96
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.611272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes50%1.98BTTS no50%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lecce · Columns: Udinese1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL
UdineseLLLDL

Head to head

Udinese – Lecce18 October 20260-3
Lecce – Udinese8 February 20262-1
Udinese – Lecce25 October 20253-2
Lecce – Udinese21 February 20250-1
Udinese – Lecce5 October 20241-0
Lecce – Udinese13 May 20240-2