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Serie A · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Fiorentina17th place
NAP 62%X 23%FIO 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 145 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X23%4.26215%6.73
Double chance
1X85%1.17X238%2.611277%1.31
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Fiorentina1-0 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Fiorentina – Napoli20 September 20261-1
Napoli – Fiorentina31 January 20262-1
Fiorentina – Napoli13 September 20251-3
Napoli – Fiorentina9 March 20252-1
Fiorentina – Napoli4 January 20250-3
Fiorentina – Napoli17 May 20242-2