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La Liga · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Rayo Vallecano11th place
ATH 48%X 27%RAY 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Rayo Vallecano -0.3.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.06X27%3.68224%4.11
Double chance
1X76%1.32X252%1.941273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Rayo Vallecano1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Bilbao28 February 20261-1
Athletic Bilbao – Rayo Vallecano25 August 20251-0
Athletic Bilbao – Rayo Vallecano13 April 20253-1
Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Bilbao1 December 20241-2
Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Bilbao25 May 20240-1
Athletic Bilbao – Rayo Vallecano2 December 20234-0