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La Liga · Matchday 11Sunday 1 November · 20:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Real Sociedad5th place
ATH 52%X 26%RSO 22%

What does the market say?

Athletic BilbaoDrawReal SociedadRinvalo52%26%22%
Market44%26%30%

✓ Agree · both back Athletic Bilbao

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.3, Real Sociedad -0.6.
  • Derby match.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X26%3.81222%4.52
Double chance
1X78%1.28X248%2.071274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Real Sociedad2-1 probability 9.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad1 November 20262-1
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad1 February 20261-1
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao1 November 20253-2
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao4 May 20250-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad24 November 20241-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad13 January 20242-1