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La Liga · Matchday 11Friday 30 October · 20:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal8th place
Full time0-1Prediction wrong
Espanyol14th place
VIL 65%X 21%ESP 14%

What does the market say?

VillarrealDrawEspanyolRinvalo65%21%14%
Market67%19%14%

✓ Agree · both back Villarreal

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Villarreal lead by 118 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 0.7, Espanyol -0.0.
  • Villarreal take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X21%4.73214%7.37
Double chance
1X86%1.16X235%2.881279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Espanyol0-1 probability 3.4% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Villarreal – Espanyol30 October 20260-1
Villarreal – Espanyol9 February 20264-1
Espanyol – Villarreal8 November 20250-2
Villarreal – Espanyol27 April 20251-0
Espanyol – Villarreal26 September 20241-2
Villarreal – Espanyol27 April 20234-2