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La Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Alavés10th place
ATM 63%X 23%ALA 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 185 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Alavés -0.3.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Alavés score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.553%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X23%4.42214%7.13
Double chance
1X86%1.16X237%2.731277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes49%2.02BTTS no51%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Alavés2-0 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Alavés – Atlético Madrid10 October 20261-2
Atlético Madrid – Alavés18 January 20261-0
Alavés – Atlético Madrid30 August 20251-1
Alavés – Atlético Madrid3 May 20250-0
Atlético Madrid – Alavés23 November 20242-1
Alavés – Atlético Madrid21 April 20242-0