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La Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
RSO 41%X 28%ATH 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Sociedad win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.45X28%3.60231%3.18
Double chance
1X69%1.46X259%1.691272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad1 November 20262-1
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad1 February 20261-1
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao1 November 20253-2
Real Sociedad – Athletic Bilbao4 May 20250-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad24 November 20241-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Sociedad13 January 20242-1