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La Liga · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sevilla6th place
ATM 65%X 22%SEV 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 179 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Sevilla 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Sevilla -0.4.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Sevilla score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.55X22%4.54213%7.52
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.831278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Sevilla2-0 probability 11.3%

Form

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Head to head

Sevilla – Atlético Madrid29 August 20261-3
Sevilla – Atlético Madrid11 April 20262-1
Atlético Madrid – Sevilla1 November 20253-0
Sevilla – Atlético Madrid6 April 20251-2
Atlético Madrid – Sevilla8 December 20244-3
Sevilla – Atlético Madrid11 February 20241-0