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La Liga · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Espanyol14th place
BAR 84%X 11%ESP 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 329 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Espanyol -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 19% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.2 – 0.7
Over 2.574%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
184%1.19X11%8.8624%22.68
Double chance
1X96%1.05X216%6.371289%1.13
Goals
Over 2.574%1.35Under 2.526%3.88BTTS yes49%2.05BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Espanyol3-0 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Espanyol11 April 20264-1
Espanyol – Barcelona3 January 20260-2
Espanyol – Barcelona15 May 20250-2
Barcelona – Espanyol3 November 20243-1
Espanyol – Barcelona14 May 20232-4
Barcelona – Espanyol31 December 20221-1